2027 Guber: Why ADC May Surprise APC in Nasarawa

As the 2027 governorship race in Nasarawa State gathers momentum, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) faces a gathering storm. The African Democratic Congress (ADC), bolstered by the defection of high-profile figures including a former deputy governor and claims of over 400,000 new members, is positioning itself as a credible alternative. What could hand the opposition this upset? The APC’s flirtation with abandoning the long-standing zoning arrangement that has preserved peace and unity across the state’s three senatorial zones.
Zoning is not a mere political convenience; it is the glue that has held Nasarawa’s diverse ethnic and religious fabric together since the return to democracy. Successive administrations have respected this unwritten pact. Governor Abdullahi Sule himself has repeatedly defended zoning as the surest guarantee of fairness, inclusion, and peaceful coexistence. To jettison it now would be politically suicidal. History shows that when parties ignore rotational equity, voter resentment festers, turnout drops in key areas, and protest votes swing to newer platforms. In Nasarawa’s case, the ADC stands ready to harvest that discontent.
Compounding the danger is the sacrosanct issue of indigeneity—especially among rural voters who form the backbone of electoral victories in the state. Survey conducted bt The EYEWITNESS reveals that for villages across  Awe, Wamba, Karu, Toto, Doma Kokona and beyond, politics is not abstract ideology; it is about “our son” or “our daughter” who understands the soil, the struggles, and the ancestral claims. Urban elites may dismiss indigeneity as parochial, but rural polling units do not. Grassroots feedback from our survey consistently show that voters in these communities will punish any party perceived to have imported a candidate lacking deep local roots. Indigeneity is not negotiable; it is the ultimate litmus test of belonging.
This brings us to the imperative of fairness, equity, and inclusion where Nasarawa/Toto must be seriously considered. The people of this axis have contributed immensely to the state’s development and political stability. They deserve their turn in the spirit of true rotational justice; not as a favour, but as a right. Ignoring this zone risks alienating a critical bloc whose loyalty has sustained the APC in previous cycles. Equity is not charity; it is smart politics. Inclusion is not weakness; it is the pathway to a landslide.
Fortunately, the APC does not need to look far for the candidate who perfectly embodies these principles. Dr. Faisal Shuaib ticks every box.
He is the embodiment of Nasarawa/Toto’s aspirations. His stellar career trajectory speaks volumes: former Director of Primary Healthcare and Disease Control in the Nasarawa State Ministry of Health, WHO State and Zonal Coordinator for the North Central zone, and Executive Director/CEO of the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) from 2017 to 2023, where he earned the national honour of Officer of the Order of the Niger (OON). His public health expertise is precisely what Nasarawa needs to tackle maternal mortality, rural healthcare gaps, and emergency response, issues that resonate deeply with ordinary citizens.
Beyond credentials, Dr. Shuaib has demonstrated unwavering loyalty to the APC. His recent donation of digital equipment and cash worth ₦70 million to strengthen the party’s e-registration drive across all 13 local government areas and 147 wards is more than philanthropy; it is a strategic investment in party machinery. He possesses the intellectual depth, administrative experience, national exposure, and grassroots humility required to unite the state. Rural voters see in him one of their own who has risen to the highest levels without forgetting home. Urban professionals respect his competence. Even critics acknowledge his integrity and vision.
In a contest where the ADC is already whispering promises of “real change” and “true representation,” the APC cannot afford half-measures. Fielding anyone who fails the twin tests of zoning respect and indigeneity would be an open invitation for the opposition to snatch victory. But strategically rallying behind Dr. Faisal Shuaib would neutralise the threat, consolidate the base, and deliver a resounding victory in 2027.
The choice is clear. The APC can either cling to equity, embrace Dr. Faisal Shuaib, and cruise to triumph or jettison zoning, ignore indigeneity, sideline Nasarawa/Toto, and watch the ADC pull off the surprise of the decade. The rural voters, the zoning faithful, and the forces of fairness are watching. APC’s future hangs in the balance.