2027: In Nasarawa, Zoning, Identity Carry More Weight Than Money

In the race to succeed Governor Abdullahi Sule, findings by The EYEWITNESS reveals that aspirants banking on financial muscle to sway delegates will learn a hard truth: Nasarawa’s electorate is driven by deeper currents of belonging, fairness, and ancestral ties that no amount of cash can purchase.
And so as the 2027 governorship election approaches, a dangerous miscalculation is unfolding within the ranks of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Nasarawa State. Several aspirants, armed with deep pockets and the confidence that money can secure the party’s ticket through direct primaries, are about to collide with political realities that transcend financial inducements.
They are about to discover that in Nasarawa politics, identity is not for sale.
The political landscape is already crowded with contenders. From the renowned public health expert, Dr. Faisal Shuaib, the current Accountant-General Dr. Musa Ahmed Mohammed, a former two-term Speaker with deep administrative experience, to Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada who recently returned to the APC fold, to former Inspector General of Police Mohammed Adamu and former NASENI boss Mohammed Sani Haruna. The field is filling with men of means and ambition.
Many of these aspirants operate under the conventional Nigerian political wisdom that delegate-based primaries are essentially auctions, where the highest bidder claims the prize. They have begun consultations, mobilizing financial resources, and building structures based on this assumption. They are mistaken.
Recent political developments in Nasarawa State have elevated a factor that no amount of money can manufacture: Indigeneity. A comprehensive public perception survey conducted by the Centre for Democracy and National Development (CDND) across all 13 local government areas of the state sampled 5,200 residents and produced a striking finding; indigeneity scored a 42% approval rating, ranking highest among all electoral indicators.
This is not mere parochialism. In a state carved out of Plateau in 1996 with over 29 ethnic groups, the question of who truly belongs has become central to political legitimacy. The survey indicates that “Indigeneity” is poised to significantly influence the 2027 governorship election due to growing ethnic and communal sentiments among the electorate.
“The people are sending a clear message: you must first belong as the ‘son of the soil’ before you can lead,” notes Bitrus Adamu, a political analyst from Nakere in Wamba local government. “Candidates parachuting in from outside our well-known ethnic or ancestral roots, no matter how competent, will face resistance”.
This presents a particular challenge for several APC aspirants. The indigeneity debate has already begun to cast shadows over some leading contenders, with questions being raised about their “core indigene” status. In a state where political legitimacy increasingly rests on verifiable cultural, ancestral, and community roots, aspirants with perceived dual heritage or “settler” status face an uphill battle regardless of their financial capacity.
If indigeneity represents the vertical depth of Nasarawa’s political consciousness, zoning represents its horizontal spread. The commitment to fairness across the three senatorial districts that make up the state.
The zoning arrangement, described by former Governor and ex-APC National Chairman Senator Abdullahi Adamu as a “gentleman’s agreement reached by the state’s stakeholders in 1996,” has governed the rotation of power for nearly three decades . The pattern is clear: Abdullahi Adamu (Nasarawa West) served eight years, followed by Aliyu Akwe-Doma (Nasarawa South) for four years, then Tanko Al-Makura (also South) for eight years, and currently Abdullahi Sule (Nasarawa North) who is completing his second term.
The mathematics of equity now point unmistakably to Nasarawa West. Senator Adamu has been unequivocal: “It is our turn,” he declared at a stakeholders meeting in Keffi recently, arguing that power must shift to the Western senatorial district “for the political stability and unity of the state”.
Governor Sule himself has emerged as a vocal defender of this principle. “Zoning gives all zones a sense of belonging and hope within the political system,” he explained while hosting stakeholders from Toto Local Government Area at the Lafia GovernmentHouserecently. He emphasized that his own emergence in 2019 was made possible by his predecessor’s commitment to power rotation despite Nasarawa North having only three local government areas.
The CDND survey reinforces this sentiment, finding that jettisoning zoning could “destabilize any political party in Nasarawa State, weakening its chances in the 2027 governorship election.” The research indicates that grassroots movements view abandonment of zoning as “a betrayal of community interests,” and that “Nasarawa voters value consistency and reliability in political parties” .
What aspirants with deep pockets fail to understand is that Nasarawa’s electorate, particularly at the grassroots level, has developed a sophisticated political consciousness that prioritizes collective identity over individual enrichment.
The CDND survey reveals a hierarchy of values that should give pause to money-minded politicians: indigeneity (42%), trust (17%), track record (18.5%), and zoning/fairness (11%) all rank above financial strength, which barely registers as a decisive factor.
This reflects a fundamental truth about the state’s political evolution. Communities that have experienced marginalization and struggle for inclusion are not about to mortgage their collective advancement for temporary financial gains. The “gentleman’s agreement” of 1996 was born from exactly this consciousness; a recognition that without rotational fairness, the state would fracture along the same lines that necessitated its creation from Plateau.
“When the time comes I will consult,” Governor Sule has promised, emphasizing that his support alone does not guarantee victory.
Direct primaries in Nasarawa will not dissolve the ethnic, cultural, and regional bonds that define the state’s political geography. If anything, a direct primary system amplifies grassroots sentiment, making it harder, not easier, for money to override community consensus. Delegates in Nasarawa do not exist in a vacuum; they are embedded in the same networks of clan, kindred, and community that have made indigeneity and zoning central to the political discourse.
The survey data is clear: “Grassroots movements, increasingly influential in shaping voter sentiment, may view such actions as a betrayal of community interests, favoring parties that demonstrate commitment to continuity and established norms” . Delegates, no matter how numerous, remain accountable to these grassroots sentiments.
The battle for Nasarawa’s governorship is not merely about who occupies the Shendam Road Government House. It is a test of whether the state’s political culture can maintain the delicate balance of inclusion that has prevented the kind of ethnic conflicts that plague neighboring states.
Governor Sule has warned that zoning “allows communities to feel represented and reduces tension,” noting that such arrangements give citizens confidence that leadership opportunities will eventually reach their areas . This is not abstract political theory it is the lived experience of a state with over 29 ethnic groups where feelings of exclusion can quickly translate into communal tension.
Aspirants who believe their personal ambitions should override these structural safeguards are playing with fire. The survey warns explicitly that “miscalculating the zoning arrangement could pose significant risks for political parties in Nasarawa State,” potentially “undermining party stability and electoral prospects” .
For the APC to retain power in 2027, its aspirants must recalibrate their strategies. The path to victory does not run through bank vaults and delegate inducements. It runs through the communities, traditional institutions, and grassroots networks that have elevated indigeneity and zoning to the forefront of political consideration.
The ideal candidate must be someone who can demonstrate not just competence and financial capacity, but authentic belonging; someone who embodies the indigeneity principle that 42% of surveyed residents prioritize. They must respect the rotational fairness that has kept the peace among the three senatorial zones. And they must understand that in Nasarawa, you cannot purchase what you have not earned through community service and cultural connection.
As Senator Adamu has reminded stakeholders, the 1996 gentleman’s agreement was designed “for peace, stability and equity” . Any aspirant who believes these values can be overridden by personal wealth fundamentally misunderstands the state they seek to govern.
The people of Nasarawa have not come this far to now auction their identity to the highest bidder. The grassroots will not cede their heritage for money, and the fairness that zoning guarantees will not be sacrificed on the altar of individual ambition.
In Nasarawa State, some things remain priceless. The aspirants would do well to learn this lesson before the primaries begin.